The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has launched the findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2011, which assesses the current state of international security, armaments and disarmament.

The key findings include: New levels of global resource demand could destabilise international relations; continuing cuts in US and Russian nuclear forces are offset by long-term force modernisation programmes; and the number of peace missions fell to the lowest level since 2002.

Natural resources—from a policy concern to a security concern

SIPRI Yearbook 2011 highlights growing security concerns linked to natural resources, particularly scarcities and competition created by climate change and intensifying global demand driven by the rise of China and India. Further, wealthy countries’ demand for precious resources helps to fuel violence and instability in the global south. The catalytic role played by demonstrations over high food prices in the so-called Arab Spring showed how resource markets can have far-reaching security impacts.

SIPRI Yearbook 2011 highlights growing security concerns linked to natural resources, particularly scarcities and competition created by climate change and intensifying global demand driven by the rise of China and India. Further, wealthy countries’ demand for precious resources helps to fuel violence and instability in the global south. The catalytic role played by demonstrations over high food prices in the so-called Arab Spring showed how resource markets can have far-reaching security impacts.

Nuclear weapons—falling numbers, little progress towards disarmament

Eight states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel—possess more than 20,500 nuclear weapons, a drop of more than 2,000 since 2009. More than 5,000 of these nuclear weapons are deployed and ready for use, including nearly 2,000 that are kept in a state of high operational alert.

Modest cuts in US and Russian strategic nuclear forces were agreed in April 2010 under the New START treaty, but both countries currently are either deploying new nuclear weapon delivery systems or have announced programmes to do so, and appear determined to retain their nuclear arsenals for the indefinite future. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan continue to develop new ballistic and cruise missile systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons. They are also expanding their capacities to produce fissile material for military purposes.

“It’s a stretch to say that the New START cuts agreed by the USA and Russia are a genuine step towards nuclear disarmament when their planning for nuclear forces is done on a time scale that encompasses decades and when nuclear modernisation is a major priority of their defence policies,” says SIPRI Senior Researcher Shannon Kile.

Peace operations—fewer operations; ISAF has most of world’s peacekeepers

The number of active peace operations fell in 2010 to its lowest level since 2002. However, the 52 peace operations deployed 2,62,842 international troops, observers, civilian police and civilian staff, an increase of 20 per cent on the 2009 level (2,19,278 in 54 operations).

At 131 730 troops the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan deployed more personnel than all the other 51 operations combined. Non-ISAF personnel numbers actually fell by 3 per cent, from 1,35,132 in 2009 to 1,31,112 in 2010.

“The vast size of ISAF creates a misleading picture. ISAF troops are mostly engaged in counter-insurgency rather than mainstream peacekeeping. If you take them out of the equation, the peacekeeping surge of the 2000s appears to be largely over,” says Sharon Wiharta, Head of the SIPRI Project on Multilateral Peace Operations.