China’s rising global influence is straining its strategic partnership with Russia. Decreasing dependence on Russian arms exports and a growing number of alternative energy suppliers mean that China has taken the upper hand in the relationship, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), launched recently in Stockholm.

The report “China’s Energy and Security Relations with Russia: Hopes, Frustrations and Uncertainties” presents analysis and insights based on interviews with both Chinese and Russian experts on the mutual perceptions and developments of the China–Russia relations.

Between the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and 2010, more than 90 per cent of China’s imported major conventional weapons were supplied by Russia. Since 2007 there has been a dramatic decline in the volume of Chinese arms imports from Russia. China is today mainly interested in acquiring technology to further develop its own arms industry, which is increasingly capable of meeting both domestic needs and export demand.

“Russia is unwilling to provide China with advanced weapons and technology primarily because it is concerned that China will copy Russian technology and compete with Russia on the international arms market,” says Dr Paul Holtom, Director of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme and one of the authors of the report. “The nature of the arms transfer relationship will increasingly be characterised by competition rather than cooperation.”

As of 2009 Russia became the world’s largest producer of oil and second largest of natural gas, whereas China, which shares a 4,000-kilometre border with Russia, surpassed the US in 2010 to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Despite these complementarities, Russian crude oil constitutes a smaller share of China’s overall oil imports compared with five years ago. China has strategically diversified its suppliers. Its largest oil supplier is Saudi Arabia, followed by Angola, Iran and Oman. In the gas sector, Russia’s negotiating position has been seriously weakened by China’s success in finding other partners, especially in Central Asia.

The US factor hinders genuine cooperation China and Russia do not share a deeper world view. While China and Russia still often take similar positions on significant global issues in opposition to the United States and share a dislike of a unipolar world, for both China and Russia individually their relationship with the US is paramount. Furthermore, there are strategic planners in Beijing and Moscow who view the other side as the ultimate strategic threat in the long term.

“The China-Russia partnership is plagued with problems. In reality cooperation is not as smooth as depicted in official rhetoric by top leaders on each side,” says co-author Linda Jakobson, formerly with SIPRI and currently at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. “Above all, both countries approach the relationship pragmatically. When interests converge, Beijing and Moscow collaborate, but when interests diverge the strategic partnership has little meaning. Genuine political trust is lacking.”