Azerbaijan has agreed to buy $1.6 billion in weapons from Israel, a massive deal that is likely Azerbaijan’s largest single arms purchase ever. The deal will include drones, antiaircraft and missile defence systems, Israeli officials have told news agencies. The deal would be almost equal to Azerbaijan’s stated 2012 defence budget of $1.7 billion (though will certainly be spread out over many years).

The timing of the deal is misleading: regardless of the ongoing ratcheting up of tension between Israel and Iran, and increasing attention to Israel’s intelligence activities in Azerbaijan, these weapons are destined to be used not against Iran, but against Armenia, which controls the breakaway Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Though it’s tempting to think otherwise.