By announcing nuclear deal with Sri Lanka, India has made a significant move to checkmate China in the Indian Ocean but China has also not failed to make a counter move to ensure that President Maithripala Sirisena makes China his second international destination in the coming months. During the visit of the newly elected President Sirisena to India from February 15 to 18, 2015, his first foreign jaunt after assuming his responsibilities, India made all efforts to woo the island leader with a civil nuclear cooperation agreement besides the decision to expand maritime security cooperation with Sri Lanka. Though India and Sri Lanka had more than a decade ago agreed to initiate a formal defence cooperation agreement, but this still remains in limbo. Probably when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Colombo by March end, the defence relations might be formalised. Meanwhile India has to rest content with a statement by Prime Minister Modi, “President and I also agreed to expand our defence and security cooperation. We welcomed the progress in our maritime security cooperation, including in the trilateral format with Maldives.”

However, India should not be in celebratory mood. Like an astute politician President Sirisena has not missed the chance to gladly accept the Chinese Government invite to attend the annual Boao economic forum meeting. China has invested a lot of political and financial muscle in the island nation as part of its maritime silk road strategy with an aim to make the tiny country the liynchpin in its Indian Ocean policy. Hence, President Sirisena would be wooed with double vigour when he meets the Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing.

Interestingly, for the first time in India-Sri Lanka relations, the current summit level engagement has not evoked emotive and violent reactions from the Tamil political parties of India, who spare no chance to castigate the Sri Lankan Government on its anti-Tamil attitude and remind the Indian Government to desist from helping the Sri Lankan Government in any form. Even the Sri Lankan armed forces officers who often visit India to attend to some defence course have been forced to go back after political pressures of the Tamil parties and government.

However, with the dethronement of a powerful dictator like Mahinda Rajapaksa and coming to the centre stage of a political leader who talks of reconciliation with the Tamils of his country and who has indicated that he will have a balanced foreign policy with India and China there are expectations in Indian strategic circles of transparent relations between the two nations. Sirisena has indicated that he will not become a pawn in the Chinese chess game being played on the board of Indian Ocean, there are also hopes of a clarity in the Sri Lankan maritime security policy and also that they will not allow China to take strategic advantage of their presence on the Island nation on the excuse of infrastructure development projects. India has sought assurance on this count.

One must wait for the results of the visit of President Sirisena to China before pronouncing judgement on his distinct inclinations towards India. Though Sirisena had made a lot of well meaning statements after his interactions with Modi, by calling his visit a remarkable milestone in taking the relations to a greater height, Sirisena also expressed satisfaction that the visit had borne very fruitful results.

The issue of fishermen continues to be most emotive in India-Sri Lanka relations as millions of Indians depend for their livelihood on the maritime area between India and the island nation. Indian fishermen are accused of trespassing into Sri Lankan waters. Hence Prime Minister Modi had to publicly tell Sirisena that a solution must be found by the fishermen’s associations of both countries as it affected the livelihood in both countries.

It is reported that Modi raised the issue of 13th amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution for devolution of powers to the Tamils. India on its part has initiated many schemes for the well-being of beleaguered Tamil population by providing funds for 50,000 flats in the Tamil areas. India has been engaging with the previous Rajapaksa Government to take care of the Tamils, but he was turning a blind eye to the ground situation in the Tamil areas. The new Sirisena Government looks amenable to India’s suggestions for revival of faith among Tamil population towards the new government.

Also, with the new political signals from the Sirisena Government ground has been prepared for India and Sri Lanka to engage more deeply in the defence, nuclear and other strategic areas. Though the agreement on civil nuclear cooperation has more of a symbolic value than any substantive offer like the building of a nuclear power plant, it has attracted worldwide attention. “The bilateral agreement on civil nuclear cooperation is yet another demonstration of our mutual trust,” according to Modi.

However, the civil nuclear cooperation only talks of facilitating cooperation in the transfer and exchange of knowledge and expertise, sharing of resources, capacity building and training of personnel in peaceful uses of nuclear energy including use of radioisotopes, nuclear safety, radiation safety, nuclear security, radioactive waste management and nuclear and radiological disaster mitigation and environmental protection.

In spite of nuclear cooperation agreement not being of substantive nature, Sri Lankan President would try to sell this deal as a big achievement for them in his country, who are considered a novice in nuclear technology. President Sirisena has perhaps realised the necessity of taking note of India’s security concerns, hence there has been indications from the Sri Lankan Government to review the $1.4-billion Colombo project. Earlier China had taken advantage of India’s passive attitude towards the island when India sat on the Sri Lankan Government proposal to build the Hambantota port. China lost no opportunity to complete this project in time and has now bagged another similar port project, the foundation stone for which was laid last year when President Xi Jinping had visited Colombo, immediately after New Delhi.

However, Prime Minister Modi would be balancing Xi’s visit to Colombo with his first in 27 years after the visit of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1987. The new Sirisena Government has provided an opportunity to India to engage more deeply with the maritime neighbour and create an environment of trust between the two nations. At the moment China still seems to be a big elephant present in the Indo-Sri Lankan tent, where China found a vacant space to move in because of the domestic and external factors created both by Sri Lanka and India.

Reacting cautiously on the Sirisena visit to India and the signing of the civil nuclear cooperation agreement, China said, “We want to develop strategic cooperative partnership with India for peace and prosperity and want the same with Sri Lanka.” India’s ties with Sri Lanka was adversely affected when its previous government allowed the Chinese to expand its footprint in the country by building ports, highways and participating in other infrastructure projects.