Myanmar’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has won a resounding victory, sweeping through Myanmar’s elections with 37 additional seats over the threshold of 329 seats required for majority in the two houses of Parliament. Suu Kyi, daughter of Myanmar’s independence hero, Gen Aung San, spent 15 years under house arrest between 1989 and 2010, despite her NLD winning a landslide in elections in 1990 which were later nullified. Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for “her non-violent struggle for democracy and human rights”, she was sidelined in 2010 elections but released from house arrest six days later. She won a parliamentary seat in 2012 by-election, when Myanmar adopted liberalising reforms. Though Suu Kyi has bagged a parliamentary seat for herself in the current elections, she is barred from becoming President of Myanmar despite the massive NLD win because her husband was a foreigner and her children are foreign nationals, under a constitutional clause inserted by the junta while transferring power to a quasi-civilian government in 2011. Many feel this was done specifically to rule her out. However, Suu Kyi has said that she will be the country’s de facto leader, acting “above the President,” if her party forms the next government. Capturing the presidency and Parliament would give the NLD power over legislation, economic policy and foreign relations, although the constitution guarantees that the military will keep control of the ministries of defence, interior and border security. Also, the military will be able to legally block constitutional amendments.

The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which was created by the junta, is led by retired soldiers but the Army remains a formidable power. In addition to this bloc of parliamentary seats (25 per cent seats are reserved for the military), the C-in-C nominates the heads of the interior, defence and border security ministries and the constitution gives him the right to take over the government under certain circumstances. Presently, the military has said it will accept the outcome of the vote but there are questions how power sharing between Suu Kyi’s NLD and the military will eventually work out. While full results of the election were still coming in, Suu wrote to the leadership requesting talks on national reconciliation. The US congratulated Myanmar on the election but noted that more work remains ahead on the country’s road to democracy. Myanmar has been racked with Buddhist-Rohingya Muslim clashes past several months including during the election campaign since about a million Rohingya Muslims who are stateless are not permitted to vote. Myanmar effected effective implementation of ceasefire agreements with eight armed groups on October 15, 2015. Negotiations are continuing with other groups but the outcome is uncertain. Myanmar Army launched a fresh attack on rebel soldiers in eastern Myanmar’s Shan state last month. Fighting erupted near Loilen district’s Monghsu township headquarters of the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N)—the armed wing of the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP)—causing Shan villagers to flee to safety. At the same time, money from abroad flowed in quickly as sanctions were eased.

Myanmar is of strategic importance to India on the eastern flank and as a gateway for connectivity to South East and East Asia.

Photo Credit: PIB

Following settlement of a maritime boundary dispute with Bangladesh in 2012, Myanmar reformed its FDI law and provided greater revenue incentives for international company investments in 2012. It has since issued oil and gas exploration licences for 20 blocks in the Rakhine Basin in 2014, where giant gas discovery was first made in 2002. FDI stood at $8 billion in fiscal 2014-15, more than five times the flows recorded just two years earlier. Myanmar lies along the right pincer of China’s strategic jaw reaching out to the Indian Ocean, which has led to China stepping up economic and defence relations with Myanmar. China has developed oil and gas pipelines connecting the Indian Ocean with mainland China and is developing ports on the Myanmar coast. However, following America’s renewed interest in Myanmar, China has created a powerful proxy in the Shan State headquartered United Wa State Army (UWSA) that controls the narcotics ‘golden triangle’ arming them with machine guns, armoured vehicles, shoulder-fired air defence weapons and even missile-fitted helicopters. Myanmar is of strategic importance to India on the eastern flank and as a gateway for connectivity to South East and East Asia. Chinese intelligence in May this year established ULFWSEA (United Liberation Front of West, East and South Asia) in Myanmar bringing together nine militant groups of North East including the NSCN (K) and ULFA, to destabilise our North East. Prime Minister Modi has already visited Myanmar. Stability of Myanmar and good relations are what India looks up to.