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Pakistan – from terrorism to nuclear terrorism

 

By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd) Former Director General of Information Systems, Indian Army

 

In his book 'A Hard Country', the author Anatol Lieven’s book cites a Pakistani diplomat remarking about the US that it cannot lay down pre-conditions on Pakistan about Afghanistan when “you are losing”. That summarizes the irony of the west in beating drums of war against terror but giving full support to a country like Pakistan and its terror factories in the ostrich hope that their own countries will be saved from terror attacks. It also means abject surrender to terror with no clue how to handle the problem in Afghanistan. With the extended stay of US-NATO troops in Afghanistan, this also amounts to advising the US to negotiate with a terrorist country (Pakistan) and terrorist organizations (Taliban, Al Qaeda, Haqqanis) to facilitate eventual honourable exit, believing Pakistan’s lie that these terrorist organizations are not interlinked and Pakistan is not the manipulator. ‘Beyond Bullets: Strategies for Countering Violent Terrorism’ a 2009 study by the Centre for A New American Security, USA stated, “Pakistan represents the most difficult problem because it has become the host of the global jihadist movement and terrorists can increasingly operate with impunity there because of the weakening of the state. The fact is that the linkages of Pakistan’s Military-ISI with terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh have serious implications for us. Pakistan’s refusal to act against the Haqqanis is proof of her intentions in Afghanistan post 2014”.

Again, the report ‘Global Trends 2025’ by US National Intelligence Council talks of the growing arc of instability on grounds of economies, management of social change, the two-tier Muslim world and the like but makes no mention how western military actions including supporting terrorism generating countries like Pakistan have helped aggravate instability in the past or will help do so in the period leading to 2025. Meanwhile, the Afghans continue to ask a simple question – if US waged GWOT, why were the terror factories inside Pakistan not attacked? If Pakistan could be forced to become an ally in GWOT for fear of “being bombed into stone age” why was the same threat not used to make her shut down the terror hatcheries? But over the years, Pakistan has brought much finesse to terrorism. Today the Pakistan supported Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban are milling around the northern borders of Afghanistan. Ironically, Russian intervention in Syria has apparently made Pakistan dearer to the Obama administration. Additionally, the belief in the Pakistani military also is that they will be able to assimilate the ISIS to their own advantage. Now media is viral with the recent Nuclear Notebook report that by 2025, Pakistan may emerge as the 5th largest nuclear power, while she is already developing short range nuclear capable missiles to respond to Indian invasion. The report compiled by atomic scientists says that Pakistan already has a stockpile of 110-130 warheads compared to 90-110 warheads in 2011, and that at this rate Pakistan could emerge as the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025. This is hardly surprising with full-fledged Chinese support to Pakistan’s nuclear program, several delivery systems under development, four already functional plutonium production reactors and multiple uranium facilities.

The exact number of nuclear warheads that Pakistan may develop over the next decade can be anybody’s guess but the report estimates 200-250. Western media is agog with speculation about Pakistan telling the US she is not willing to cap her nukes, particularly tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs). This is mere hype because when the US has always looked away to even Pakistan’s blatant nuclear proliferation, how does it matter whether Pakistan has 110-130 nuclear warheads or 1100-1300. After all crossing the nuclear threshold requires firing of just one nuclear warhead, irrespective whether tactical or nuclear. Militaries both sides of the Indo-Pak border are no fools and know this would be an invitation to mutual destruction – more on the one initiating the nuclear exchange. But the bogey of nuclear exchange is raised by the western media and think tanks to remain in business. Additionally, Pakistan keeps sabre rattling her nukes periodically to keep her value high with the west while the latter uses it as an excuse to continue supporting the Pakistani military and use her proxies to advance their own interests. What the US and allies need to worry about is Pakistani nukes getting into the hands of terrorist organizations and the keepers (Pakistani military) getting increasingly radicalized; overconfidence in using terrorism as the currency of power can result in some horrific surprises.