The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

On December 27, 2024, Chinese state media Xinhua reported that the government of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region announced the establishment of two new counties in the Hotan Prefecture - He'an County, and Hekang County. The county seat of He'an is Hongliu Township, while the county seat of Hekang is Xeyidula Township. These counties fall in Aksai Chin, Ladakh.

Subsequently on January 3, 2025, Indian media stated that India has lodged a protest with China over creation of two new counties in Hotan prefecture. In a strong reaction, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said, "We have seen the announcement pertaining to the establishment of two new counties in Hotan Prefecture of China. Parts of jurisdiction of these so-called counties fall in India's Union Territory of Ladakh. We have never accepted the illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in this area. The creation of new counties will neither have a bearing on India's long-standing and consistent position regarding our sovereignty over the area nor lend legitimacy to China's illegal and forcible occupation of the same. We have lodged a solemn protest with the Chinese side through diplomatic channels."/

Ministry of External Affairs India lodged a solemn protest with the Chinese side through diplomatic channels

Announcement of these two new counties on December 27 last year would have come as a shock, because of which the MEA perhaps took seven days to lodge a protest with China, but there is definitely more to this, that the MEA appears to be hiding, which may have indirectly instigated China to announce these new counties.

On December 18, 2024 Special Representatives (SRs) of India and China, NSA Ajit Doval and Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, met to discuss the boundary issue; their 23rd meeting on the issue and first in five years. The MEA brief covering this meeting mainly talked of both SRs meeting to oversee management of peace and tranquillity in border areas and explore mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question; reiterating importance of maintaining political perspective of the bilateral relationship; affirming implementation of disengagement agreement of October 2024; underlined importance of maintaining peace and tranquillity in border areas; provided positive directions for cross-border cooperation/exchanges including resumption of Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, data sharing on trans-border rivers and border trade.

However, two days later on December 20, indigenous media reported that India has explicitly rejected China's claims regarding a so-called "six-point consensus" on the boundary issue. Indian officials emphasised that any consensus must respect India's territorial integrity and sovereignty, indicating that India would not accept unilateral changes proposed by China. The report further said that India has firmly stated that it does not recognise China's assertions regarding the boundary consensus, asserting its own territorial claims instead, and India's refusal to endorse China's claims is likely to complicate future diplomatic engagements. But the MEA still did not divulge what China has demanded or proposed.

India has firmly stated that it does not recognise China's assertions regarding the boundary consensus, asserting its own territorial claims instead, and India's refusal to endorse China's claims is likely to complicate future diplomatic engagements

The above makes it amply clear that something more happened at the meeting of SRs which was not reported by the MEA and there was no statement by NSA Ajit Doval either. Possibly, Wang Yi told Doval of the new counties, that Aksai China is integral to China and/or even proposed some territorial exchanges. However, in the absence of the MEA/Indian media choosing to keep quiet on these details, China went ahead and announced the two new counties.

China would be keenly studying what Indian politicians say, as well as reports in the Indian media. In 2019, Union Home Minister Amit Shah roared in Parliament, 'We will take back Aksai Chin', which may be why China moved four motorised divisions into eastern Ladakh. Subsequently, in 2020, India's political hierarchy denied any PLA ingress into Eastern Ladakh despite one major PLA intrusion in Depsang alone being 20-km deep. China, therefore, promptly blamed India as the aggressor, even for the Galwan Clash.

It is not difficult for Beijing to surmise that the Indian political hierarchy lacks the spine to stand up to China

Excerpts of former Army Chief General M.M. Naravane's autobiography 'Four Stars of Destiny' came out in the media last year. The book has not been cleared for publication by the government yet. But the excerpts published partly covered India's response to the Chinese aggression in Ladakh. Naravane, who served as the Indian Army Chief from December 2019 to April 2022, writes that he was under orders not to open fire on the PLA. When he told Defence Minister Rajnath Singh about advancing PLA tanks and troops, Rajnath told him he had spoken to the Prime Minister and "Jo ucchit samjho woh karo" (Do as you deem fit) – which smacks of avoiding responsibility. However, when informed of enemy tanks and troops coming within 500m, the Defence Minister, the External Affairs Minister, the National Security Advisor and the Chief of Defence Staff did not respond to his query of how to deal with the criticality. It is, therefore, not difficult for Beijing to surmise that the Indian political hierarchy lacks the spine to stand up to China.

Beijing has been giving Chinese names to places in Arunachal Pradesh (which China calls 'South Tibet)' to assert its illegal claims – part of China's legal warfare. But Aksai Chin is already occupied by China. Whether India can get it back at some point in the future remains a million-dollar question.