The undeniable fact is that terror capability in Pakistan is being constantly energised through institutionalised radicalisation

No matter how sincere the effort of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari, revival of true democracy in Pakistan is a distant dream even if General Ashfaq Kiyani is not interested in an outright military coup. The military is too strong to get cowed down with the events like killing of Osama bin Laden or terrorist attack on PNS Mehran Air Base resulting in destruction of two P3C Orion aircraft and killing of SSG and Marines.

Indo-Pak relations will continue to be subject to Pak Army-ISI-LeT machinations much as the Afghan-Pakistan relations will be subject to Pak Army-ISI-Taliban machinations, with the lever in the hands of Kiyani. The news that Zaheer-ul-Islam, the new DG ISI is not an Islamist (read radical) is fooling us. He may come from 5 Corps at Karachi but prior to that he served a full tenure with ISI as DG (C) and would be party to all that has been done by the ISI in those years.

G. Parthasarthy, former Indian Ambassador to Pakistan, recently said, “Both the Air Force and Navy are far more tech savvy and less fundamentalist than the Army in Pakistan. But, whether fundamentalist or not, the army officer Corps is pathologically anti-India.” Both Gilani and Hina Rabbani have been eloquent in stating that Pakistan will not interfere in Afghanistan and that the issue of treating Afghanistan as Pakistan’s “strategic depth” is passé but then is the Pakistan Army on board? Pakistan (including Pak Taliban)-Afghanistan-US talks are presently underway. Pakistan has reportedly made it clear that they want Pak Taliban part of the Government in Afghanistan, minimal Indian presence in Afghanistan confined to development projects and no Indian military involvement in even training the Afghan National Army.

The Pak Taliban is for strict rule of ‘Shariya’ and vehemently state they can walk out any time reneging on whatever promises made. Some of our intelligence sources talk of signals coming from Pakistan that the ISI is trying to mellow down and curb the Pak Taliban. Can we be so naïve so as to believe this? When Pakistan has been taking the US for a ride all these years despite Indian warnings to the US, how can you expect her to change course post-2014 when US and NATO forces thin out from Afghanistan, talk of complete pullout likely being a political gimmick of President Obama. When you cannot trust Pakistan how can you trust Pak Taliban?

It is more significant to note that the ride on which Pakistan took the US included targeting the NATO-led ISAF supply lines repeatedly through Taliban, targeting US bases in the heart of Afghanistan killing Americans through the Haqqani network and facilitating Chinese military advisors to assist Pak Taliban fight NATO troops along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. All this despite the billions of dollars worth of aid and massive weapon systems Pakistan received from US under pretext of being the frontline partner in the Global War on Terror.

US-NATO thinning from Afghanistan and Chinese strategic footprints in Pakistan and POK would certainly be euphoric to the Pak Military-ISI-Taliban-Al Qaeda-LeT combine, adverse effects of which will emerge in Afghanistan and India in times to come, no matter how many deceptive tactical pauses. An Urdu paper in Pakistan has already talked of the possibility of Pakistan leasing Gilgit-Baltistan areas to China for 50 years. Look at the horrific brutal killings of Shias within Pakistan. The undeniable fact is that terror capability in Pakistan is being constantly energised through institutionalised radicalisation. When the US has only been able to obliquely accuse Pakistan of murder till now, it is double jeopardy for Pakistan post-2014.

The views expressed herein are the personal views of the author.